For approximately 15 years patent application pendency (the time it takes for the USPTO to process a patent application from application date to approval/denial status) at the USPTO has been increasing. The economic disasters over the last 10 years along with other factors have been the cause of the real exponential growth in the backlog and turnaround time. The main variable to consider when determining the evolution of this problem is the budgetary issue/lack of funding at the USPTO. Fees imposed on patent applicants make up approximately 70 percent of the Patent Office's budget. Along with the economical stresses on potential applicants, there has also been a significant decrease in the patent allowance percentage (those applications that are actually approved and patented) in order to increase patent quality. These factors have applicants discouraged to invest in a patent application and in turn leads to less fees collected by the PTO for funding. All that being said, this has led to limited hiring of patent examiners and as a result the application pendency time has increased and created a reinforcing system. The amount of backlog has overwhelmed the limited workforce. There are various elements, both hard and soft, included in this complex system. The hard elements, for example, would include the amount of fees collected, the patent allowance percentage, the amount of incoming applications, the number of examiners, the backlog volume, and the amount overtime worked by examiners. What makes this system so complex is the number of soft factors. Some of the most significant would include the ethical reliability of management, that is, the validity of the data being presented, the future attrition of the workforce, and finally the unknown future economic trends.
Note: The factual data included in this blog regarding the USPTO was taken from information presented on the website http://www.ipwatchdog.com/ .
A well defined model boundary. This will make for an interesting causal loop diagram. I am curious to see what other effects this problem may have since patents interact with so many fields. You have given a very straight forward description of an otherwise convoluted problem.
ReplyDeleteNice job, Martin. You mention a soft variable in the main description..namely, the incentive for potential applicants to pursue the application process (and hence pay the app. fee). The soft variables you mentioned (ethical reliability; future attrition, economic trends) may be relevant, but you've not really explained in the text how they fit the overall picture.
ReplyDeleteThe "hard variables" you specify are "right on!" I'd even add as a "hard variable" the number of potential applicants (that is, individuals or organizations doing work that is potentially patentable).